Hiking up the mountain.
The Old Dominion Monarchs (3-1 in SBC) travel to Boone, North Carolina to take on the App. State Mountaineers (1-3 in SBC). This will be the second game played in Boone after Hurricane Helene drenched the area with devastating floods of biblical proportion. The hurricane caused significant damage to both life and property and forced App. State to cancel their home game against Liberty with no plans to reschedule it. The Mountaineer football team have done their part volunteering to help the area recover. You can do your part by donating to Project Hope.
App. State has obviously had a lot more important things to worry about than football. However, the football team has been a major disappointment this season going 3-4 (1-3 in SBC) and Shawn Clark’s seat is getting hot, hot, hot! The Mountaineers were actually expected to finish first in the SBC East, so it is a huge surprise to everyone that they currently sit in sixth place. Now they are just trying to salvage their season and hopefully make a bowl game. To do so, the ‘Neers must win three of the last four games which adds a lot of significance to this Saturday’s game against the Monarchs.
The Monarchs cannot overlook the Mountaineers because they do have a lot of talent on the roster, especially at quarterback. Joey Aguilar was the SBC Newcomer of the Year in 2023 and the Preseason SBC Player of the Year. Despite his incredible performance last season, he is not playing as well dropping his completion percentage from 63.7% in ’23 to 56.7% in ’24. He has thrown “only” 14 touchdowns but nine interceptions. He also has 98 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns. It is a down year for Aguilar but a lot of that is simply because he is under pressure a lot more often this year. If the Mountaineers’ offensive line holds up and gives him time, he can still burn any defense just like he did against Georgia State last week.
The offense has some life to it averaging 442.3 yards per game (4th in SBC). Aguilar is still slinging the ball averaging 294 passing yards per game (1st in SBC) but they are coming up short with points averaging only 26.1 points per game (8th in SBC). Indeed, star wide receiver Kaedin Robinson is playing well with 44 catches for 686 yards but no touchdowns. So with so many yards and not a lot of points, what is going on here? Well, they lead the league in interceptions (11) and that is with playing one less game than most other SBC teams. They are also constantly playing from behind forcing the Mountaineers to pass a lot creating deceptive stats. Penalty yards have also been a major problem for this offense ranking the third most in the league.
But still, this offense will keep them in games by either passing or rushing. The Mountaineers maintain a healthy running game averaging a respectable 4.4 yards per carry (9th in SBC) and 148.3 yards per game (9th in SBC). They have a stable of good running backs with Anderson Castle and Ahmani Marshall but Kanye Roberts is leading the pack with 323 yards. Overall, if the offense can turn the ball over less and play more disciplined, they can be very dangerous and score a lot of points. But it is still questionable if they have played a G5 defense as good as the Monarchs’ this season.
Those offensive problems need addressing but App. State’s biggest problem is by far their own defense. The Mountaineers average allowing 418.6 yards per game in total defense (11th in SBC). The biggest problem is the front seven against the run as everyone and their mother is running all over them. They allow on average over 200 rushing yards per game (12th in SBC). This has been very deadly for the Mountaineers and a big reason for their disappointing record. Overall, the defense has allowed the MOST points per game of any team in the Sun Belt (36.4). Last season, the Monarchs obtained their first win against App. State by keeping the ball on the ground and rushing for 221 yards. The Monarchs should stick with the exact same game plan and run with Aaron Young, Bryce Duke, Devin Roche, Tariq Sims, and of course Colton Joseph. Empty the stable of running backs. There is very little need to pass against this team.
App. State’s offense has issues but also some life to it. Joey Aguilar is a very talented quarterback. He has talented receivers including Kaedin Robinson. He has help in the running game. But they are turning the ball over too much. They are also committing penalties. Finally, the defense has been no help as one of the Sun Belt’s worst. That does not mean they are not dangerous. In fact, they are desperate and still capable of beating anyone in the conference. The Mountaineers must win three of the last four games to go bowling and that still will not satisfy their fan base’s high expectations. Failure to even meet that mark could cost Head Coach Shawn Clark his job. So you know App. State will come out of the tunnel amped up with their backs against the wall. If Old Dominion wants to win this game, they need to play very well because it will not just be given to them.
Prediction: ODU 36, App. State 24
Last week, all of us correctly predicted ODU beating Georgia Southern. Gary deserves special recognition for calling a blowout in the Monarchs’ favor. It is easy for me to say it after the fact, but I thought the same thing but was too scared to officially predict it. So give Gary all of the recognition. Mike still leads the board at 6-2, Gary and I are tied for second place at 5-3, while Vegas, Aaron, and the Monarchs themselves are 4-4. This week we are all doing it again and picking the Monarchs. Even Vegas is picking the Monarchs by 2.5 points. Do not miss the guys’ analysis from the Pod:
Meanwhile, this App. State defense is.. well.. bad. The Monarchs should score about as many points as the Mountaineers usually allow (36.1). Colton Joseph had a breakout game against Georgia Southern and may have a very similar game against App. State. But frankly, he should not have to. The Monarchs just need to keep the ball on the ground and attack this team at their weakest point. The offensive line will create massive holes for Aaron Young and Devin Roche to have big days on the ground. With it, the Monarchs should win. This should be the first Old Dominion team to ever win a game in Boone, North Carolina.
Want more? Don’t miss my breakdown of the big win against Georgia Southern on national television.