The Monarchists

Georgia Southern v. Old Dominion Preview and Prediction

David Asbury

ESPN2, the Ocho

This Thursday night’s nationally televised game on ESPN2 could not be any bigger.  The Georgia Southern Eagles are coming off a big win against JMU and are now 3-0 in the conference.  The Old Dominion Monarchs are coming off a big win against Texas State and are now 2-1 in the conference.  The winner will take first place in the SBC East.

The Georgia Southern Eagles will want to win this one badly.  Third-year head coach Clay Helton got the Eagles to a strong start with 5-2 record.  However, that just eeks him to a 17-16 record with the team (1-1 against Old Dominion).  Their fan base is over the hot starts because the past two seasons both ended in meltdowns.  Indeed, last year the Eagles started their season with a 6-2 record only to drop the last five games.  Helton cannot let it happen again and hopes to keep up the momentum by beating Old Dominion and securing first place in the division.

The success is mostly coming from the offense. Ga. So.’s overall offense is averaging a respectable 373.9 yards per game (9th in SBC) and 30.0 points per game (tied 6th in SBC).

They can certainly pass the ball with quarterback JC French who has thrown for 1,531 yards (5th in the conference).  French is completing 64.4% of his passes with 10 touchdowns.   The redshirt sophomore is in his second year at Georgia Southern and under Helton’s pass-happy spread offense.  However, French is not the best runner with only 115 yards on the ground and one rushing touchdown.  He has also been sacked 16 times and thrown five interceptions (three against JMU).  So, it’s unlikely he will be considered for the SBC Player of the Year despite his record.  Credit is also due to French’s very talented wide receivers Derwin Burgess and Dalen Cobb who combine for over 700 yards.  This passing group is talented and the question will be if the Monarchs’ defense can limit it as much as it limited Jordan McCloud and his talented group this past Saturday.

With such a good passing game but average overall offense, it usually means the running game is struggling.  The Eagles are only averaging 129 yards per game (11th in SBC).  When you factor in the lost yards due to sacks, the Eagles are rushing for only 3.7 yards per carry (11th in SBC).  There is some talent in the running game as veterans Jalen White and OJ Arnold  have 387 and 217 rushing yards respectively.  Meanwhile, sophomore David Mbadinga is getting more touches and scored a touchdown in each of the last two games.  However, it is not enough to take control of a game.  The Monarchs have a stout rushing defense that only allows 3.8 yards per carry on average (3rd in SBC).  This is a good matchup in the Monarchs’ favor.  They should stuff the run on Thursday.

The Eagles have had some struggles on the other side of the ball.  The Georgia Southern defense is allowing 443 yards per game (13th in SBC).  A lot of it is through the air (268 yards per game, 13th in SBC) but also a good amount on the ground too (175 yards per game, 7th in SBC).  Indeed, the Eagles allow 5.2 yards per carry (11th in SBC).  There is talent on the defensive side of the ball such as linebacker Marquez Watson-Trent who leads the conference with 69 total tackles (ODU’s Jahron Manning is third with 63 tackles).  However,  the defense is just not the strength of this team as it allows 28.1 points per game (9th in SBC).  Colton Joseph will likely be able to pass much more easily in this game than in prior games but also expect the offense to get the ground game going .  The Monarchs’ offense will look pretty good on Thursday.

Overall, at 5-2 this Eagles team is good but it is pretty much all coming from JC French and Clay Helton’s pass-happy offense.  At 3-0, they have impressive wins against good competition as they defeated Marshall and JMU.  The two losses were against quality foes in Boise State and Ole Miss.  The Eagles are in a solid position and in the driver’s seat to win the SBC East.  However, they have not impressed on defense or running the ball.  Can their pass-happy team be enough to win the SBC East?  Or will they face another Clay Helton-meltdown and find themselves in a subpar bowl game that they will lose again?  This Thursday night is pivotal in answering these questions.

Prediction: ODU 28, Ga. So. 21

The Monarchs are making the “experts” in Vegas look really bad.  With their blown prediction, Vegas’ record is now 3-4 for ODU games.  I can only laugh so much though because Gary and I both blew last week’s prediction by picking Texas State.  Gary and I both drop to 4-3 in our predictions.  Aaron and the Monarchs themselves both improve to 3-4.  That leaves a new leader on the board, Mike.  At 5-2, Mike is starting to show us up a bit.  This week no one will be able to get a leg up because all of us (even Las Vegas) are going with the Monarchs at home on national television.  Heck, even Harry is chiming in to pick the Monarchs by one point.  Don’t miss the fellas’ analysis from the Pod.

The Monarchs simply matchup really well against this Southern team.  The Eagles primary strength is passing the ball and the Monarchs’ secondary has been playing very well lately (proving the loss to Coastal was a fluke caused mostly by injuries).  The Eagles struggle to run the ball and those struggles should continue against the Monarchs’ stout rushing defense.  The Monarchs’ offense has struggled to pass the ball, but face a team that will help Joseph air it out more than he has.  The Monarchs just look like a good matchup.

However, do not let all of our optimism fool you.  This is not a cupcake team and the Monarchs are only favored by 2 points.  The Eagles can only be limited in the passing game so much and will break through on occasions.  If the Monarchs’ offense is not playing their best game, it will give the Eagles the opportunity to control the game and win it.  The dam will break if the ODU defense is on the field for too long.

But to help, the Monarchs needs a good home crowd on national television.  Not everyone has Amazon Prime to watch the NFL game and the World Series will not start until Friday, so there will be lots of eyes on ODU.  We need to show up, get loud, bring our signs, and show off our stadium.  It is military appreciation night, so WEAR NAVY, and stay for the drone show at halftime.  Seriously, with such a good high-stakes game, why wouldn’t you want to come?  LFG!

Want more?  Don’t miss my recap of the big win against Texas State.