The Monarchists

Texas State vs. Old Dominion Preview and Prediction

David Asbury

Cowboy Homecoming

Quarterback Colton Joseph’s teammates call him “Cowboy.”  That is fitting as he will start his first homecoming game against the Texas State Bobcats this weekend.  Even the Marching Monarchs will march in a “Cowboy” formation at halftime.  So can the Cowboy out-cowboy a Texas team on homecoming?  It is a tall order because the Texas State Bobcats are good.  Really good.  Last week they trounced the Arkansas State Red Wolves 41-9 to move to a 4-2 record.  Their two losses come from some solid out-of-conference teams (Sam Houston State and Arizona State) in very close games.  Currently undefeated in the Sun Belt, the Bobcats are expected to compete for the SBC West and are likely looking ahead to their games against Louisiana and ULM which could decide that race.

The Monarchs have never faced TXST or head coach GJ Kinne before.  From 1904 to 2003, the school played some level of football under the name Southwest Texas State.  In 2003, the school changed its name to Texas State and in 2012, moved up to FBS with a single season in the WAC before joining the Sun Belt.  From 2013 to 2022, the Bobcats mostly struggled and then in 2023, GJ Kinne came into town like a desperado wearing a 10 gallon hat.  He quickly turned over the roster and brought the Bobcats to a 8-5 record and their first bowl victory ever.  This season, he aims to win the West and then the Sun Belt Conference Championship.

Kinne’s offense is certainly good enough to do it too.  It is is averaging an eye-popping 477.5 yards per game, the most in the SBC.  The offense is led by JMU-transfer and the reigning Sun Belt Player of the Year, Jordan McCloud.  McCloud is having another top-tier season and is completing a ridiculous 71.2% of his passes.  He has thrown for 19 touchdowns and 1,713 yards (second most yards in the Sun Belt).  On top of that top-tier passing performance, McCloud has 202 yards on the ground and four rushing touchdowns.  Last season at JMU, he threw for 340 yards, three touchdowns and only two interceptions against the Monarchs in a 30-27 win.  The Monarchs have a lot of work to do if they just hope to limit McCloud at homecoming.  The rushing defense is there, but the secondary has to play their best coverage to be competitive or McCloud will carve them up.

The thing is, it is not just McCloud.  He has a good offensive line, he has good receivers, and he has a good running back.  At running back, Ismail Mahdi is the second leading running back in the Sun Belt with 507 rushing yards.  At receiver, McCloud has plenty of weapons including his favorite Joey Hobert.  Hobert has 42 catches for 411 yards and seven touchdowns.  Hobert is a playmaker too who is not afraid to get extra yards with a hurdle or other athletic feats.  It may be a challenge, but the Monarchs need to play their best defense to win this game or come up with a good amount of turnovers.

Defensively, the team struggled last season allowing 37.1 points per conference game and 415 yards per conference game.  But even here, the Bobcats are improved.  Texas State is allowing only 346.2 yards per game (4th in SBC) and 22.3 points per game (3rd in SBC).  Their passing defense is especially strong.   The Bobcats have racked up 24 sacks, which is not just the best in the Sun Belt, but it is the fourth most sacks in the entire nation. Defensive end Steven Parker is standing out with four sacks which is tied for the third most in the Sun Belt.  In the secondary, the passing defense is only allowing quarterbacks to complete 55.45% of their passes (2nd in SBC) and allowing 218.5 yards per game (8th in SBC).  Their run defense is only allowing 127.7 rushing yards per game (3rd in SBC).  Some of these numbers are a bit deceptive though because teams are forced to abandon the run and pass simply to try to keep up with McCloud.  It is possible that the Monarchs may actually have more success if they keep the ball on the ground with Roche, Duke, and Sims.

Devin Roche (3) and Bryce Duke (4) showcase a deep running back room while starter Aaron Young is still likely injured. Photo courtesy of CB Sports Photography.

Overall, expectations are high for Texas State and they are mostly meeting them in every aspect.  Even in the games which they lost, they played well and against quality opponents.  Arizona State is a P4 team that is having one of its best seasons in years in the Big 12 and only beat TXST by three points.  Sam Houston State may actually challenge WKU and Liberty to win CUSA and only beat TXST by one point in game that TXST controlled for the most part.  In the preseason, I predicted the Bobcats to represent the SBC West in the Sun Belt Championship and I am not ready to change that prediction.  The Bobcats will challenge Louisiana and ULM to represent the West.

Preview and Prediction:  TXST 31, ODU 24

The fellas and I beat Vegas this past week as the Monarchs “upset” the Georgia State Panthers.  Gary, Mike, and I are all 4-2 in our predictions.  Aaron and the Monarchs move up to 2-4.  Vegas drops to 3-3 for underestimating the Monarchs on the road yet again.  This week, we are pretty split.  Vegas favors the Bobcats by 10 points.  The line is too high and taking the Monarchs to cover is a good bet considering how much Old Dominion loves one-score games.  However, Gary and I are both begrudgingly picking Texas State to win.  Mike and Aaron give us some hope and are picking the Monarchs to win in a “shocker.”  Catch all of their analysis and predictions on the podcast.

I do not want to just repeat what Gary said on the pod but our opinions are pretty aligned here.  Texas State has a very high-powered offense and above-average defense.  The Monarchs’ defense is their strength, but it can only do so much to limit Jordan McCloud.  I expect McCloud to have a good (but not great) day and throw the ball well to Joey Hobert and others.  The Monarchs will stuff the ground game for most of the game, but as the game goes on, the dam may eventually break there as well.  The Bobcat’s defense will give up points too but it will be tough for Colton Joseph and the Monarchs’ passing game to keep up.   The Bobcats should win in another one-score game.

However, Mike brings up good points too.  McCloud had a good day against the Monarchs in 2023 but ODU shook him up a bit and he threw two interceptions.  The Bobcats will also be traveling the farthest they will all season as this game matches with the most Eastern and most Western schools in the Sun Belt.  The Bobcats will have little fan support at the game.  They also may be overlooking Old Dominion and has assumed they would easily win this game before taking on SBC West foe Louisiana next week.  There are enough ingredients here to cook an upset.

Want more?  Check out my recap on the win against Georgia State.