The Monarchists

Old Dominion v. South Carolina: Game Preview and Prediction

David Asbury

S-B-C!  S-B-C!  S-B-C!  It just means more.  

In 2014, the Taylor Heinicke-led Monarchs traveled to Nashville to play the Vanderbilt Commodores.  The brand new FBS team was somewhat impressive but the Commodores pulled away to win 42-28.  Ten years later ODU is making a second attempt at traveling to a SEC opponent and hopes to sneak away with an upset victory to open the season.    

After a strong first two seasons in Columbia, 2023 was a big step back for Shane Beamer and company, as the Gamecocks missed a bowl game at 5-7 overall (3-5 in SEC).  The Gamecocks are a below-average SEC team but still a member of the largest and wealthiest conference in college football.  Their budget and recruits dwarf any member of the G5 including ODU.  But being below average in their conference has raised a lot of questions and entering his fourth season as head coach, those questions are directed at Beamer.  Unfortunately for him, the SEC dealt a mammoth of a conference schedule.  So can Beamer get the team to a bowl game?  Will he be gone if he does not?  Will he even be there in Week 2 if they lose to ODU?  Do chickens dream like humans?  All questions ODU fans probably will not care about by December.  

Shane Beamer probably thinking about chicken dreams while losing to Clemson 16-7.  Photo attributed to Katie Dugan licensed with Attribution 2.0 Generic.

Quarterback Spencer Rattler commanded the offense the past three seasons but he is off to the New Orleans Saints.  The good news is that Beamer already figured out his post-Rattler strategy.  He named LaNorris Sellers the starting quarterback after Spring Practices.  Sellers is a dual-threat quarterback who ran for 51 yards and a touchdown last season as a true freshman.  He also completed four passes against Furman (FCS).  Those four passes were good for 86 yards and two touchdowns.  Sellers finished the Spring Game completing nine passes for 70 yards and five carries for 38 yards and an opening drive rushing touchdown.  He has shown poise and quick decision making skills.  He will not hesitate to take off on the ground either.  Sellers is scheduled for a breakout season which is bad news for the Monarchs who have struggled against dual-threat quarterbacks in the past.  

The Gamecocks need to break in new pieces from the portal at running back, receiver, and along the line.  The rushing attack should be improved with Raheim Sanders coming in from fellow SEC member Arkansas.  There he rushed for 2,230 yards and 20 total touchdowns in three years.  The receiver group had portal transfers such as Jared Brown from Coastal Carolina.  In 2022, Brown caught five passes and a touchdown against the Monarchs.  Brown is joined by five other transfers so there will be a lot of new faces.  The offensive line returns four starters however two of them will be out with injury for ODU’s game and the line was a sore spot for the unit last season.  Overall, the offense has a lot of breaking in to do and there will be growing pains.  It appears to be a subpar SEC offense but if Sellers can excel in his role then the offense could surprise people.

Defensively, eight starters are back and there’s plenty of room to improve after allowing 27.5 points per game in SEC play last year. Improving the pass defense (allowed 21 completions of 30-plus yards) is a must and finding a pass rush (21 sacks in ’23) are two areas of improvement.  But the defense looks much better than the offense and returns a lot of experience.  The defensive line looks like Beamer’s best line with Alex Huntley, Tonka Hemingway and Kyle Kennard.  Kennard had 12.5 sacks last season.  The secondary is much more experienced as well with three starters returning who combined for five interceptions.  The linebacker unit has much more depth and will see a bigger rotation.  But expect Debo Williams to get his playing time.  The 1st-team All SEC player made 113 tackles last season and should be the leader and star of the unit.  The defense just might be the best defense ODU faces all season.  

Las Vegas predicts 5.5 wins this year but South Carolina draws a very tough schedule, even for a SEC team.  They must play Alabama, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, LSU, and Clemson.  They will be an underdog in as many as eight games which is a lot for a SEC team not named Vanderbilt.  This is not a bad team overall, they are just having trouble keeping up with the very best of college football.  The Gamecocks still have advantages in recruiting and resources that dwarfs every team in the Sun Belt.  For this reason, I ranked them the second best team on the Old Dominion’s schedule, just after Virginia Tech.

With such a tough conference schedule, South Carolina needs to focus and take care of business against nonconference opponents like ODU, Akron, and Wofford.  They can also probably expect a win against Vanderbilt.  Kentucky might also be a winnable game but will be tough.  After that, it is very difficult finding a sixth and final win to reach a bowl.  Shane Beamer may be given more time if the fans are understanding of the tough schedule but his seat will become very hot and we might see him coach a Sun Belt team next year.

Prediction:  South Carolina 30, Old Dominion 17

Monarch fans should not take too much away from this game.  The Gamecocks are a down SEC team but they are still a SEC team with a very hostile environment.  The Sun Belt may be the best G5 conference but it is still far behind the SEC.  It will always be very tough to compete with them on their own turf.  South Carolina’s defense looks especially talented so no one should panic if the Monarch offense sputters out in its first game of the season.

This is a classic “buy game” where South Carolina paid Old Dominion to come to their house just to lose.  In fact, USC paid $1.5 million guaranteed, the largest pay out ODU ever received.  It will be good for the program to have this cash on hand to compete in the Sun Belt.  But what if ODU not only gets paid but also comes up with the upset?  It is possible, so don’t lose heart.  In fact, fellow Sun Belt member App. State defeated South Carolina in Columbia 20-15 in 2019.  Mike, Aaron, and Gary discussed on the Pod how the Monarchs can play well and get the upset even though it may be a long shot.

However, we should just be excited if the game is close and the Monarchs play well.  Vegas favors the Gamecocks by 21 points, a spread ODU can cover.  I predict the game to be just a smidge closer than that and for both offenses to not look their best just yet.  Jason Henderson and the strong ODU defense could limit their rushing attack and LaNorris Sellers will need to prove that he is a potent passer even if he is good on the ground.  On the other side of the ball, the Monarchs may struggle to put many points on the board against what could be the very best defense they face all season.  But maybe ODU’s unique system can confuse the Gamecocks and run the ball well.  Regardless, football is back baby!  Let us rejoice and have some fun!  If you cannot make it to the game in Columbia, make sure you attend the Watch Party at Afterglow Brewery!

Check out the next week’s opponent:  East Carolina.  If you want to learn more about this ODU team, please check out the Offense Preview, Defense Preview, and Special Teams Preview.