The Monarchists

Old Dominion vs. Marshall Preview and Prediction

David Asbury

The Real Season Begins Now

ODU fans are probably still mad about the Commerce game and I get it.  But there’s no time.  ODU needs to move on to play Marshall, a team that also almost loss to their FCS opponent.  In Week 1, they were losing to Albany but then pulled ahead to barely win 21-17.  They moved on to defeat a below-average East Carolina team 31-13 and a beat-up Virginia Tech 24-17.  They look good, especially on defense and may even be in the running for the Sun Belt Conference Championship.

 

Their quarterback Cam Fancher has not looked great all that much this season.  In three games he has thrown for only 612 yards, two touchdowns, and three interceptions.  He is not much of a runner either as he only has 60 yards rushing.  But the lefty has a 9-1 record as a starter and is keeping a high completion rate (66.3%).  As one Marshall fan put it, he’s the man and earned his spot but he’s not perfect.  On the other hand, Fancher’s supporting cast is close to perfect.

The Marshall offense is really led by their star running back, Rasheen Ali.  Ali is back to his old self after an injury sidelined him much of last year.  He has the perfect combo of strength and speed to be an all-purpose back.  So far, he’s run for 396 yards and scored seven touchdowns.  He’s averaging 6.3 yards per carry.  If ODU wants to win this game, Jason Henderson and the ODU run defense needs to have a good day and limit Ali to below his average of 132 yards per game and 2.3 touchdowns per game.

The Marshall Defense has also been really stout.  So far, no team has scored more than 17 points against them.  Their pass defense has been very impressive allowing only 158.7 yards per game.  Grant Wilson (or Jack Shields?) may have a hard time Saturday if he does not step up to the occasion.  Especially when it comes to pass protection as this team has now sacked the quarterback 14 times.  Sam Burton leads Marshall in sacks with 4.5 and Owen Porter has been sporting an impressive college career with 15.5 sacks.

However, this defense has not been great against the run.  They have allowed 145.3 yards per game.  Keshawn Wicks did not play last week after being in a car accident the night before the game.  If he’s healthy, he has the opportunity to have a big day and surprise a lot of people who think Marshall should run away with this game.

Overall, this is a solid team.  In the preseason, I said that they were the third best team on our schedule and should compete for the SBC East title.  Although, I was concerned after their play against Albany, I now believe this team is in a prime position to win the SBC East.  They are currently on an eight-game winning streak dating back to last year’s game 12-0 win over the Monarchs in Norfolk.  Now it’s the Monarchs who have a chance to break that winning streak.

Prediction:  Marshall 24, ODU 17.

The guys from the podcast have been making picks too.  Gary is 3-1 and Aaron is 2-2, where Mike and I are both currently 4-0 in our predictions.  However that ends this week as Mike and Aaron picked ODU and Gary and I picked Marshall.

I have not given up on ODU despite the poor performance against Commerce.  I think this team can win four of the next eight to become bowl eligible.  I just think this game will be the most difficult of the remaining eight.  There are certainly matchups in our favor here.  Our run defense with Jason Henderson can limit star running back Rasheen Ali to below his average.  But there are also matchups I hate.  The Herd defense is salivating to sack our quarterback ten times.  Owen Porter may have multiple sacks on whoever ODU ends up starting.  It is also in Huntington, which isn’t the easiest place to visit and leave with a win.

The commentators don’t believe the Monarchs will be much of a fight for them.  ESPN gives Marshall an 89% chance to win and Marshall opened as a 12-point favorite.  They would be very surprised if ODU won, but I would not.  Marshall may let their guard down after they gave their all to win against Virginia Tech last week and will travel to NC State the following Saturday.  The Monarchs’ woes on offense could be fixed or at least improved.   ODU is still the same team that beat UL and took a huge lead against Wake Forest.  Outside of running back Rasheen Ali, the Marshall offense should not scare anyone as they currently average 25.3 points per game.  The Monarchs nearly won in Huntington in 2021 and it is possible ODU scares the Herd again.  It should be a fun one in Huntington.

Want more?  Check out our Homecoming Recap and Conference Schedule Outlook.