Here’s our assessment of how tough each opponent is.
The Monarchs have a tough schedule. They must face two ACC schools, they draw two mid-tier SBC West schools, Liberty who has been a strong G5 independent (now CUSA), and of course the rugged SBC East. There are really no off weeks for ODU. Teams near the bottom of these rankings are not bad teams and are likely to have good seasons. But the rankings have to place each team somewhere:
1. Wake Forest – Dave Clawson is a proven winner despite the key departures. The defense is not very good and ODU can be competitive if the offense clicks early in the season. But it would be extremely difficult to keep up with the Demon Deacons offense, even without Sam Hartman. Most expect them to be a mid-tier ACC team which places them on top of this list.
2. Coastal Carolina – My pick to win the SBC East. New coach, but same old Grayson McCall. If he’s healthy they can win nearly every conference game on their schedule. But like Wake, the offense may have to bail out the defense some.
3. Marshall – Rasheen Ali is back. Cam Fancher has more experience at quarterback. And if the defense is half as good as they were last year, the team could compete with Coastal for the SBC East title.
4. Virginia Tech – I am not sold on Brent Pry as head coach. They should do better than they did last year given all of their new transfers, but in the preseason I will pick Marshall to beat Virginia Tech at home. Regardless, a season opener in Blacksburg will be a difficult game for the Monarchs.
5. App. State – Talented offense but the quarterback and cornerbacks are major question marks. They may be just as enigmatic as they were last year where they beat Troy and Texas A&M but let Texas State score 36 points on them. It makes you scratch your head.
6. James Madison – It is just hard to imagine they can produce the same high level of play without Todd Centeio, Kris Thornton, Agyei-Obese, and Isaac Ukwu. A step back is going to disappoint the JMU fans who have really high expectations.
7. Southern Miss. – If you can limit running back Frank Gore, you will beat this team. But USM can rebut the critique with a single word: If.
8. Liberty – Liberty may win 10 or more games this season but that does not necessarily mean they are a great team. They have lost a lot of talent and new coach Jamey Chadwell is rebuilding the roster. But their schedule is probably the easiest in all of FBS so smash that over on the win-total.
9. Louisiana – Louisiana doesn’t return many playmakers outside of quarterback and the quarterback situation is suspect. They also did not bring in a whole lot of transfers either. They could still reach a bowl this season but that would be due to their relatively soft schedule.
10. Georgia Southern – Last year’s bowl eligible season may have been a year too early for Clay Helton’s rebuild and a sophomore slump would not be entirely unexpected, especially considering the status of the defense which was dead last in the SBC in yards and points allowed. But Davis Brin is talented and could be an easy replacement for Vantrese at quarterback.
11. Georgia State – The offense will be “The Darren Grainger Show” as they lose their top-two leading running backs and top receiver with no clear replacements on who will make plays for the team. A new DC comes in to rework the defense but the secondary is a major concern. They have a moderately high ceiling but a very low floor this season.
12. Texas A&M-Commerce – New to the FCS ranks, they hired a coach who has never coached college football before and the team has never played an FBS opponent before. Commerce should be no real competition for the Monarchs on Homecoming and we should expect some back ups to get playing time towards the end.